مختبر السرد السياحى (26) : خدعة علوم التنبؤات السياحية والتقارير المضللة

احمد قرة
2013 / 12 / 3

ؤيما تكون من اهم المحاذير التى يجب تجنبها وينصح بخا معظم خبراء السياحة ، انة عند القيام بتحديد اتجاهات صناعة السياحة الحالية والمستقبلية ، هو عدم الاعتداد بما بصدر من تقارير عن التنبؤات السياحية المستقبلية المحددة للاتجاهات فى الصناعة فى مكان مغين فى العالم ن ربما يكون مرجع ذلك دائما هو نظرة مستقبلية اكثر تفاؤى مما قد بصدر من بيانات يجب العكوف عليها ، واكتشاف فحواها جيدا ن بعيدا عن تلك التقارير التى تكون اغلبها معممة ، وتعتمد على مبدا اقتصادى يؤكد ان النمو يؤدى الى نمو ، والانحصار والركود يؤدى الى ركود ، فى تقاعل طردى مستمر ، وهذا المبدا ربما يطرح بقوة من خلال البورصات المالية ، وما تتشيع بة فى مجموعات المضاربة او ما يطلق علية الجيم وغيرها من الالعاب المالية ، التى يجب ان تطرح بعيدا بتحيزاتها عن تحديد الاتجاهات السياحية وتريند الحقيقى للصناعة
لذا فانة يجب عن تفعيل تقنيات السرد السياحى ان يتم الابتعاد تماما عن تلك التبؤات المجمعة ، التى قد تدفع احيانا الى ايجاد خالة من الايهام والتطور المستقبلى وتكون فى جوهرها كاذبة ن او مرتبطة باهداف سياسية تطقى عليها صبفة من التفاؤل الذى لااساس لة من الوجود ، فمثلا التقرير التالى عن التبؤات السياحية والاتجاهات الصادر عن بورصة برلين العالمية التى تغقد فى شهر مارس من كل عام ، بستخدم الاطار الاجمالى للنمو السياحى فى القارة الاوربية ، وخاصة من الشائحين القادمين للقارة والتى وصل عددهم فى العشرة شهور الاولى من عام 2013 ، بثلاثمائة وستة وتسعون مليون سائح ، بنمو خمسة واربعة من غشرة فى المائة عن عام 2012 ن متخذا من ذلك اتجاهات نمو لاتبدو واضحة بل وكثيرا مضللة ، وربما بسبب التفاوت بين ارجاء القاخرة الاوربية التى تعانى بلدان منها فؤائض مالية تتجاوز ستة فى المائة من الميزانية المالية لها ، واخرى تعانى عجزا ، وكذلم اختلال التوازن بين السياحة المصدرة والسياحة المستجلبة ، باخذ نظام غير واضح لاتجاهات السياحة فى القارة الاوربية ، ولن تختلف تلك التقارير عن التقارير السنوية المجمعة ، والتى قد تصدرها البورصات العالمية من خلال مفاببس ومعايير المونوتر السياحى ، تتاخذ نفس الشكل ، ويمكن بعد قراءة التقرير التالى نصل الى عدة استنتاجات
تقرير بورصة برلين الدولية /
ITB World Travel Trends Report forecasts rise in travel to and from Europe. As expected, bookings by holidaymakers from southern Europe are down. However, the number of visitors to these countries has increased.




BERLIN – Despite various regions continuing to experience economic difficulties Europe’s tourism industry remains buoyant. This is one of the findings of the annual ITB World Travel Trends Report, conducted by IPK International and commissioned by the world’s leading travel trade show, whose figures confirmed rising travel numbers to and from Europe. The forecast for 2014 is equally very positive.

From January to August figures for outbound tourism grew by 2.5 per cent, compared to 2012. Overnights increased by two per cent. By contrast, the amount spent by tourists at holiday destinations rose by only one per cent. Averaging 7.9, the number of overnights per trip fell by two per cent. Putting this decline into perspective, however, was the fact that in recent years Europeans have tended to take more short breaks, combined with fewer long holidays.

The figures for source markets varied widely. The Russian market boasted a healthy increase of 12 per cent. Despite economic difficulties, the market in France grew by five per cent, followed by Sweden, the UK, Belgium and Switzerland. The German market expanded by two per cent. As expected, Spain and Italy were low down in the rankings, as was Ireland. Trips undertaken by Italians fell by up to five per cent.

South America and the Pacific benefited most from an overall unabated lust for travel and reported a nine and six per cent increase in trips respectively. The North American market remained relatively stable, whereas the Caribbean market shrank by eight per cent. A look at the respective travel industry segments reveals a three per cent increase in holiday trips, while business travel decreased slightly. In the leisure travel market smaller segments, in particular winter breaks and trips to rural destinations, were increasingly popular, while major segments such as city breaks and beach holidays maintained their share of the market.
Positive forecasts for next year
The forecasts for travel in 2014 are very positive. 38 per cent of those polled, two per cent more than in 2012, said the economic situation affected their holiday plans. Despite this 28 per cent, the same figure as last year, said they intended to travel abroad more. Around 42 per cent said they aimed to continue travelling as they did this year. Only nine per cent (2012: 11 per cent) said they would be travelling less abroad. Overall, the forecasts predict three to four per cent growth in 2014. In this respect Russian travellers are expected to top the rankings. They are forecast to increase by ten per cent.

The Swiss, Britons, and Swedes also expressed their desire to travel. At three per cent, growth in the German market will remain stable, while expansion in the French, Dutch and Spanish markets will be moderate. The latter will finally return to growth. The Italian market’s decline is forecast to continue.

Inbound tourism figures extremely positive
As regards arrivals in Europe the figures for the “Old World” varied according to region. Overall, they were positive. Thus, the ITB World Travel Trends Report recorded around 396 million international arrivals during the first eight months of 2013, around 5.4 per cent more than in 2012. The European Travel Commission (ETC) reported similar findings. Among the European winners in this market were Iceland, Slovakia, Serbia and Latvia, which experienced double-digit growth.

Russia, Asia and the USA were among those countries which contributed particularly to the high number of travellers from abroad. Most countries reported a rise in visitors from source markets such as Russia, Germany, the UK, Norway, France and Switzerland, while the market for travellers from the Netherlands, Spain and Italy painted a different picture. The ETC forecasts an overall increase of around three per cent for travel to Europe in 2014. However, it qualified this forecast as imprecise, due to the economic situation remaining uncertain.

A look at the performance of individual countries reveals a number of winners in southern Europe. In particular Malta, Portugal and Croatia experienced growth rates of between six and eight per cent. In 2013 visitors to Italy rose by 2.5 per cent. At around three per cent, the forecast for 2014 is equally positive. Most central European countries reported solid growth and expect two to four per cent growth next year.

The figures for northern Europe remained stable too. There was a decline in arrivals from Germany, but this was offset by visitor numbers from Russia and Asia. International arrivals in the UK and Ireland rose by five and six per cent respectively, with growth figures of one and four per cent expected in 2014.

All the findings are based on information from papers held at the World Travel Monitor® Forum in Pisa, which is sponsored by ITB Berlin. Every year the consultancy IPK International invites more than 50 tourism experts and scientists from around the world to present the latest statistics and trends in international tourism.

Other results of the January to August 2013 trend surveys conducted by IPK as well as the assessments of more than 50 tourism experts from over 20 countries and the core data of the World Travel Monitor will be published exclusively by ITB Berlin. Detailed information will be available in the ITB World Travel Trends Report in early December at itb-berlin.com. At the ITB Berlin Convention Rolf Freitag, president of IPK International, will present the findings of the World Travel Monitor for the entire year, as well as the latest forecasts for 2014. The World Travel Monitor is based on the findings of representative interviews carried out with more than 500,000 people in over 60 global travel markets. It has been published for more than 20 years and is recognised as the most widescale continuous survey examining global travel trends.
ان اخطر ما تطرخة تلك التقارير انها تتاخذ نمعايير غير منضبطة للخكم على مستوى الاداء السياحى ، بل وتلقى بة على اداء العام المقبل ، على الرغم من ان دورة حياة الاتجاهات السياحية لاتتجاوز اربعة شهور ، وتمر خلالها من مرحلة الاكتشاف ثم النمو قم الجمهود قم الانتهاء لتبدا دورة حياة اخرى
لذا فان التعامل مع التبؤات السياحية واتخاذ تقنية سردية معينة بتاء على تلك التبؤات هو خطا جوهرى قد بعصف تماما بكامل السردية السياحية ، ولعلنا نتذكر العديد من الاستراتيجات السياحية التى منين بالفشل فى كلا من اليونان واوربا الشرقية بناءا على تنبؤات مضللة ن وليست بيانات اقرب ان تكون مؤكدة تعامل معها فى اطار نماذج محللة مرتبطة بثياسات دقيقة